The New York Time has a report on news that appears in Der Speigel. It exposes a report made to a branch of the Bundeswehr (the German Army):
“The study states that there is ‘some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.’
[…]The German military study, which was analyzed and partly translated into English by Der Spiegel, declares that once peak oil begins in earnest, economies around the globe — including Germany’s — will probably struggle with price shocks as a result of higher transportation costs, and ‘shortages of vital goods could arise.’
‘In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,’ the study continues.”
There have been some other reports from European sources that are indicating that Peak Oil should occur this year or next. As I recall there was even a special report to the US Joint Chief’s of Staff making the same point and calling on the US Military to start planning how to respond to a declining supply.
Didn’t WWII start in the Pacific because the Japanese realized that they needed access to oil if they were going to be able to sustain the empire they craved?
Don’t know if we have time to create the solar alternatives that would help us avoid the worst of the shocks, but I know people in Arizona are thinking hard about how to leverage the climate out here to do something along those lines with power generation at least.