Saw this just now in the Guardian:
“‘By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: ‘While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.’
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with ‘an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments.'”
Read the full article here.
In other words, if the Joint Task Force is right, the window is closing rapidly. The upshot is that they’re reasoning that a growing economy and a flat supply of oil is going to cause major disruptions in terms of a car based/oil based economy.