DoE predicts Peak Oil in 2011-2012. Hopes for magic solution.

The US Department of Energy, which officially rejects the idea of Peak Oil, admits that the only way oil production will increase after 2011 is if we find new oil resources with greater reserves than those Saudi Arabia – and put them into production immediately.

Worlds-liquid-fuels-supply-eia-aeo2009.1269555738.JPG And that all has to happen in the next few years.

“The graph labels as ‘unidentified’ the additional supply projects needed to fill in a gap that is expected to grow after 2011 between rising demand and decline of known sources of supply that the DoE supposes will start that year. The declining production foreseen by the DoE concerns the total of existing sources of liquid fuels plus the new production projects that are supposed to come on-stream before 2012.

The DoE predicts that the decline of identified sources of supply will be steady and sharp : – 2 percent a year, from 87 million barrels per day (Mbpd) in 2011 to just 80 Mbpd in 2015. At that time, the world demand for oil and other liquid fuels should have climbed up to 90 Mbpd, according to the presentation document.

‘Unidentified’ additional liquid fuels projects would therefore have to fill in a 10 Mbpd gap between supplies and demand within less than 5 years. 10 Mbpd is almost the equivalent of the oil production of Saudi Arabia, world top producer with 10.8 Mbpd.”

Full article here.

In associated news, the new mayor of Detroit has announced that it’s time to shrink the Motor City. He’s announced plans to close schools, cut back on services and begin razing tracts of abandoned housing.

It doesn’t look like the people of Detroit are expecting the motor car to have much of a future as an economic engine for the region.

So… does this mean church plants shouldn’t be as worried about having large parking lots? Perhaps we should be more concerned about being near mass transit stops when we look for new sites.

And, given how much oil is needed to make asphalt, what are the chances of being able to adequately maintain the interstate system and the ancillary roads?

Author: Nick Knisely

Episcopal bishop, dad, astronomer, erstwhile dancer...