There’s a think-piece up on GigaOM about the future of Broadcast TV. The article argues that ten to fifteen years from now we won’t have a complete move to new format media, but that a stable mix of formats will have emerged…

Back to the Future… for Broadcast TV: “Five years from now, the TV market will no longer be segmented solely by major broadcast network vs. cable network viewership. Instead, the market will be further subdivided among viewers of linear broadcast programming vs. that of non-linear on-demand formats. Moreover, the on-demand segment will account for a steadily increasing share of total viewership. On the flip side, it’s equally important to note that the segment with traditional linear/broadcast programming (while declining) will continue to remain alive with its own significant share for quite some time. That said, within this linear/broadcast segment there will be a mini-disruption in the near term. To be specific, it is likely that most of the hundreds of channels we get today via our cable & satellite subscriptions will disappear and there will be only 10 to 20 ‘broadcast channels’ left standing. Here’s why…”

Read the rest of the article. For those of us who need to think about where communication is heading in the next couple of decades, it’s pretty useful. A big piece of the work done by the Commission I am on in the Church is focused on just this sort of question. (Actually, most of the groups that I’m involved in at the parish, diocesan, national and international levels are trying to answer this question now that I think of it…)

(Via GigaOM.)