“…there is one other force in the right that is not political, but Godly – it is revival. Growing churches, growing ministries. The church of the left is shrinking…“
Brad makes a point in this posting on his blog that I’ve seen others people make as well. And I’ve seen Susan Russell and folks on the opposite end of the spectrum making a counter-claim that their churches are the ones that are growing.
The problem is that, at this point, all we have is anecdotal evidence. I’ve not seen any hard numbers teased out in a way that makes sense.
If we could extract average-sunday-attendance numbers over maybe 5 years from the parochial reports and then work out some way of identifying which end of the spectrum is represented by which congregation… And then normalize all that against the background population growth of their communities and the size of their naves, we might have something really worth thinking about.
(We’d need to normalize them against population growth because a parish just holding its own in the Pittsburgh region may be actually doing extraordinarily well in a declining community versus a parish in a region where the community is rapidly growing. We should include the size of the nave because once you’ve filled the building, more growth requires more planning and happens more slowly.)
I wonder if Kirk Hadaway in the Church Center would have a way to get such numbers put together? The hardest part would be the figuring out where to put various congregations on the present political spectrum. I don’t think that the aggregate diocesan data is granular enough to be of much use.
Anyhow. I’d be very curious to look at the numbers. I don’t know if you can necessarily draw a conclusion about which side God is on from the results – in fact I rather doubt it – but it would be interesting to see all the same.
Read the rest here: Drell’s Descants » So, What Really Happened To The Episcopal Church
Here’s a start…
Top 25 Counties in the U.S. ranked by Largest
Population Growth, 1990-2000
County, State Number Rank
——————————————————-
Maricopa, AZ 950,048 1
Los Angeles, CA 656,286 2
Clark, NV 634,397 3
Harris, TX 582,477 4
Orange, CA 435,621 5
Riverside, CA 374,974 6
Broward, FL 367,487 7
Dallas, TX 366,208 8
Dade, FL 316,168 9
San Diego, CA 315,817 10
San Bernardino, CA 291,054 11
Queens, NY 277,781 12
Tarrant, TX 276,116 13
Cook, IL 271,697 14
Palm Beach, FL 267,681 15
Travis, TX 235,873 16
Gwinnett, GA 235,538 17
King, WA 229,729 18
Collin, TX 227,639 19
Orange, FL 218,853 20
Bexar, TX 207,537 21
Wake, NC 201,535 22
Hidalgo, TX 185,918 23
Santa Clara, CA 185,008 24
Mecklenburg, NC 184,243 25
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
County and City Data Book: 2000,
Table B-1.
Top 25 Counties in the U.S. ranked by Largest
Population Decline, 1990-2000
[Independent cities are denoted by IC following
“county” name]
County, State Number Rank
——————————————————-
Baltimore IC, MD -84,860 1
Philadelphia, PA -68,027 2
Allegheny, PA -54,783 3
Wayne, MI -50,525 4
St. Louis IC, MO -48,496 5
Washington, DC -34,841 6
Norfolk IC, VA -26,847 7
Hamilton, OH -20,925 8
Milwaukee, WI -19,048 9
Erie, NY -18,319 10
Cuyahoga, OH -18,162 11
Oneida, NY -15,367 12
Montgomery, OH -14,747 13
Aroostook, ME -12,998 14
Orleans, LA -12,264 15
Broome, NY -11,624 16
Onondaga, NY -10,637 17
Cambria, PA -10,464 18
Vernon, LA -9,430 19
Luzerne, PA -8,899 20
McDowell, WV -7,904 21
Kanawha, WV -7,546 22
Lucas, OH -7,307 23
Mahoning, OH -7,251 24
St. Clair, IL -6,770 25
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
County and City Data Book: 2000,
Table B-1.
Thanks Cassandra.
Look at all the PA counties in the top 25 counties in decline! With the exception of Philadelphia and Baltimore counties, most of the declining counties seem to be in Appalachia.
I agree that it’s not possible to come any conclusion. Church growth (and I’m a supposed specialist in it) only reveals numbers. And we should never make the mistake that more people = more gospel.
I’ve always believed that the closer we get to the gospel that the smaller our communities would become– that’s not a cop out answer, it’s a deep truth that I believe may well be true. The closer we get to what we are truly to be about, then the fewer and fewer people who will sign on to it. It requires a radical re-ordering that most will do but only to a comfortable point.
And both sides of the political spectrum can be painted with that brush.
Here are some hard statistics, while we’re all fighting among ourselves:
I don’t recall the number of citizens of this country (nation) going down. Why would numbers in ECUSA (TEC) represent a 3.5% decrease yearly if the number of citizens is going up? (Across the board, of course)
In my diocese, South Carolina, I have noticed an over 33% increase in 15 years. Is that because my area of the nation is growing? Is it because of an orthodox, and also, yet, probably, Anglican appeal (In its orthodoxy)?
I see you as needing to negate Average Sunday Attendance numbers. Why? Those are the people attending “your” pews!
And “our” pews.
Those are the most likely numbers attending any service on any given day. 4th of July vs. Holy Saturday. Christmas vs. 7th Pentecost. Easter vs. All Hallowed Eve.
How does one measure Christianity’s flow?
By being there?
Hi Milton:
(I shouldn’t be responding on a Sunday morning since I’m just about to go into service to preach but…)
” Why would numbers in ECUSA (TEC) represent a 3.5% decrease yearly if the number of citizens is going up? (Across the board, of course)”
–This is the big question. The decrease isn’t unique to the Episcopal Church alone. It’s showing up in most everything – Rotary, PTA, religion, etc. There’s a larger sociological transition happening that seems to be effecting all the traditional institutions of society. But having said that, yes – the decrease in TEC membership in a time of significant population growth is very troubling.
In my diocese, South Carolina, I have noticed an over 33% increase in 15 years. Is that because my area of the nation is growing?
— I’m sure it doesn’t hurt. That was I was suggesting that we normalize ASA against background population growth. If the area around you is growing at 20% and the congregation is only growing at 10%, then that’s a net loss. If the area around you is decreasing by 20% (like in Pittsburgh) and you’re growing at 5% then that’s a huge growth pattern.
I see you as needing to negate Average Sunday Attendance numbers. Why? Those are the people attending “your” pews!
–Not at all. ASA is the best measure of church size that we have at the moment. I’m not trying to negate it, I’m trying to get a clean number out of it. (It’s one of those astronomer things that I still do… grin.)
Those are the most likely numbers attending any service on any given day. 4th of July vs. Holy Saturday. Christmas vs. 7th Pentecost. Easter vs. All Hallowed Eve.
–They are that – but they’re averaged over an entire year, so spikes and decreases are going to be somewhat fuzzed out.
How does one measure Christianity’s flow?
By being there?
–Can you explain this to me? I’m not sure I follow you.
Thanks.
Hey Nick!
The answer to the question, “By being there?” is yes. If a church is growing, it should be because the people are learning to “be” Christian in every aspect of thier life. Not just the spiritual realizations but the bodily, too. Holy lives through and through. A strange and odd people called out from secular existence to Christian community.
Peace!
Two parts of this thread interest me~one is statistics and the other is what is God’s call to us as churches? On statistics, as an economist, I know very well how much statistics can be used (and misused) to support particular stories. I’d say the following would be interesting to look at over time (1) the level of people going to TEC, (2) % of a geographic area going to TEC, and (3)% of geographic area who aren’t already practicing one of the world’s other major faiths would be of interest (available Christians?) who attent TEC. But really, all of these statistics are someone bothersome to me. I don’t believe TEC has a corner of the Truth. It is the overall decline in church membership that is worrisome.
The numbers do have something to say. I’m not exactly what~particularly about whether what the TEC is doing is “right” or not. As for what God calls us to do, I think the children’s book, “The Empty Pot” by Demi has something to say. (I’ll let you search on Amazon for a summary of the story.) The lesson for me from the book is that God calls us to be faithful, without regard to being effective. Take responsibility for what we can~being faithful. God takes care of being effective.
“corner of the truth”
I meant to say “corner on the truth.” The TEC is only one of many Christian churches and I would accept that Christianity is not the only way to express a meaningful and faithful relationship with God.